Introduction
Foresight is the systematic practice of analysing the past and scanning the present to anticipate and prepare for multiple possible futures. By learning from the past and scanning the present “futures thinking” allows us to map out potential futures.
The Commons librarians have compiled a collection of comprehensive resources including tools, workshop exercises and templates to help you get started with future thinking for your social change work.
Foresight and Future Thinking Tools
Foresight is not just about looking at what futures can happen to us, but more importantly,
what future we want to make happen.
Source: JustLabs Guide to Foresight in the Social Change Field , pg 69
Trends & Events
Trends are collections of signals and events – and their buildup into patterns – that indicate a likely direction of change. They do not act in isolation, and identifying interconnections allows us to unearth correlations and causations.
Source: Toolkit for tomorrow in action today: How five organisations are shaping their futures through foresight, pg 19
- Harvesting events and Spotting Trends, pg 25 – 30
- Trends Exploration, pgs 19 – 20
- Trend Spotting, pg 93
- Wildcards, pgs 43 – 44
- Recognizing stabilities, pg 40
- Futures Wheel [Exercise], pgs 21 – 23
- Futures Wheel [Activity and Example], pg 58 – 60
- Future Wheels [Template], pg 55
The ‘futures wheel’ is a tool that enables us to systematically explore the direct and indirect impacts of important trends and issues. Such analysis also sheds light on various connections present in complex systems.
Source: Toolkit for tomorrow in action today: How five organisations are shaping their futures through foresight, pg 21
Scanning
Horizon scanning refers to systematically picking up weak signals (not general trends or descriptive facts) for the early discovery of potentially significant changes.
Source: Thinking about Tomorrow, Centre for Strategic Futures, pg 131
- Scanning for weak signals of change, pg 35
- Uncover the What, Thinking about Tomorrow, pgs 131 – 137
- How to Do Horizon Scanning: A Step-by-Step Guide
Backcasting
[Backcasting is…] A planning method that starts by defining a desired future state and then works backwards to determine the steps, decisions, and conditions required to reach it.
Source: Thinking about Tomorrow, Centre for Strategic Futures, pg 167
- Backcasting: The Domino Pathway, pgs 45 – 54
- Backcasting workshop and template, pgs 90 – 97
- Backcasting Template [Miro Board]
- Participatory Backcasting for Reconciliation in Clayoquot Sound, Canada [Example], pgs 89 – 91
- Planning Community Change with Forecasting and Backcasting, Tamarack Institute [Tool]
- Back casting – UN Strategic Foresight Testing Guide
Scenarios
Scenarios are stories that describe possible futures by exploring the interplay of different factors shaping those futures. By presenting different possible futures, scenarios offer an important way to grapple with future uncertainty.
Source: Toolkit for tomorrow in action today: How five organisations are shaping their futures through foresight, pg 25
- Scenario Immersion, pg 25 – 32
- Different Futures, Common questions, pg 66
- 2 x 2 Matrix, pg 47
- 2 x 2 Matrix, pg 97
- Scenario immersion using a 2×2 matrix [template], pg 61
- Cross-Impact Matrix [template], pg. 99
- Cross-Impact Matrix, [Activity and Example] pgs 61 – 65
- Wind-tunnelling Exercises and Template, pgs 100 – 108
- Wind Tunnelling: Stress testing the Strategy [Workshop Guide and Templates], pgs 21 -30
- Front page from the future – Four types of Different Scenarios [Activity], pgs 50 – 55
- Front Page from the Future [newspaper front page template], pg. 98
- Why you should use scenarios
- Planning for Multiple Futures: Staying Grounded While Preparing for Uncertainty, Interaction Institute for Social Change
Scenario planning helps us imagine and shape the future we want, rather than only reacting to the future we get.
Ask: What do we know, what can we imagine, and what remains uncertain? How can we hold the future lightly as we plan and move with purpose?
This is what makes scenario planning for multiple futures such a powerful component of strategic direction setting. It helps organizations maintain both clarity and flexibility. – Amy Casso, Source
Drivers of Change
While trends may last for a few months or a few years, deep drivers of change are large, structural forces that underlie and manifest themselves in different trends. Deep drivers of change have persisted for a long time, and unlike trends, are expected to continue for years or decades to come.
Source: JustLabs Guide to Foresight in the Social Change Field , pg. 31
- Uncovering deep drivers of change, pg 31
- The Driver Mapping Workshop, pgs 16-17
- Deep Drivers of Change, pg 94
- Driver Mapping Template [Miro Board]
- Driver Mapping Workshop, pgs 2 – 7
- Driver Mapping Template, pg 8
Other
The Futures Triangle is an analytical framework for identifying three types of factors affecting the future of the topic chosen for analysis. The push of the present and the weight of the past are based on existing information, whereas the pull of the future is insightful and includes different images and visions of the future.
Source: Annmarie Ryan, Digital Futures Lab, University of Limerick
- How Can We Anticipate Plausible Futures? The three power vectors of the Futures Triangle explained
- Futures Triangle Workshop Template [Miro Board]
- The Futures Cone, use and history
- Radical Imagination: Developing Conscious Activists’ Capacities
- Learning activity: Walking into the Future, Movement Learning Catalyst
First Nations / Indigenous Futures Thinking
- Indigenous futures thinking: 4 approaches to imagining a better world
- Framings in Indigenous futures thinking: barriers, opportunities, and innovations
- Te Korekoreka: Our Kawa for Māori Future Making
- Strategic Foresight in Métis Communities: Lessons from Indigenous Futurism
- The 7th Generation Principle: A Futures Thinking Framework
Ka mua, ka muri – walking backwards into the future – Māori Whakatauki
Source: Foresight and Futures 101, Slide 8, Think Place Aotearoa NZ | Wāhi Whakaaro
Explore Further
- Toolkit for tomorrow in action today: How five organisations are shaping their futures through foresight
- Using foresight to think and act upon an uncertain future world of work: Trade unions’ experiences, International Labor Organization
- We Must Write A Better Ending: Using Strategic Foresight In Social Movement Organizing
- Prefigurative Politics in Practice
- Wicked Problems in Public Policy: Understanding and Responding to Complex Challenges
- What are Wicked Problems?
- Community Futures 101: Tools and Theory, Tamarack Institute
- Strategic Foresight toolkit: Making better decisions, Save the Children
- Using Strategic Foresight to Create the Future We Want
- Systems Campaign Canvas, System Campaigning Toolkit for Greenpeace Campaigners
- Systems Thinking for Campaigning and Organizing, Blueprints for Change
